Does the 4% rule work for today’s retirement? (2024)

FAQs

Does the 4% rule work for today’s retirement? ›

The 4% rule entails withdrawing up to 4% of your retirement in the first year, and subsequently withdrawing based on inflation. Some risks of the 4% rule include whims of the market, life expectancy, and changing tax rates. The rule may not hold up today, and other withdrawal strategies may work better for your needs.

Ivanna Hampton: New retirees could kick off their golden years with a familiar number, 4%. A trio of Morningstar researchers analyzed starting safe withdrawal rates from an investment portfolio to fund retirement. The future looks good, and a little flexibility could make it even better.

If you have more than $1 million saved in retirement accounts, you are in the top 3% of retirees. According to EBRI estimates based on the latest Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances, 3.2% of retirees have over $1 million in their retirement accounts, while just 0.1% have $5 million or more.

The biggest problem with the 4% rule is that life is almost never as simple as we'd all hope. There may be some years in retirement that you need more than the rule allows and some years that you need less. This could be caused by moving locations, health problems, or other life changes.

One example is the $1,000/month rule. Created by Wes Moss, a Certified Financial Planner, this strategy helps individuals visualize how much savings they should have in retirement. According to Moss, you should plan to have $240,000 saved for every $1,000 of disposable income in retirement.

And the rule may be inadequate for early retirees who may spend 50 years in retirement. With a 4% withdrawal rate, going from a 30-year to a 50-year retirement horizon decreases the probability of success from 81.9% to 36.0%.

The 4% rule is a widely known guideline for retirement spending that says you can safely withdraw 4% of your savings the first year, then adjust withdrawals for inflation annually. This rule aims to provide retirees high confidence that they won't outlive their savings for 30 years.

In addition to ignoring other income streams like Social Security, the 4% model also falls short in that it does not provide a lot of spending flexibility. Retirees who are depending on their savings to fund essential expenses would want to have a conservative approach.

As a rule of thumb, many retirees use 4% as their safe withdrawal rate—the so-called 4% rule. The 4% rule states that you withdraw no more than 4% of your starting balance each year in retirement, adjusted each year for inflation.

The Federal Reserve also measures median and mean (average) savings across other types of financial assets. According to the data, the average 70-year-old has approximately: $60,000 in transaction accounts (including checking and savings) $127,000 in certificate of deposit (CD) accounts.

What does the average American retire with? ›

What are the average and median retirement savings? The average retirement savings for all families is $333,940, according to the 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances. The median retirement savings for all families is $87,000. Taken on their own, those numbers aren't incredibly helpful.

To be considered wealthy at age 65 or older, you need a household net worth of $3.2 million, according to finance expert Geoffrey Schmidt, CPA, who used data from the 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) to determine the household net worth needed at age 65 or older to determine the various percentiles of wealth in ...

The most advisable initial portfolio withdrawal rate for most retirees may not be 8%, but advisors should be aware that 4% may also be too safe given some of the nuances around retirement planning.

History of the 4% rule

Based on a deep dive into the half century of market data, Bergen concluded that essentially any conceivable economic scenario (even the more tumultuous ones) would allow for a 4% withdrawal during the year they retire and then they'd adjust for inflation each subsequent year for 30 years.

One frequently used rule of thumb for retirement spending is known as the 4% rule. It's relatively simple: You add up all of your investments, and withdraw 4% of that total during your first year of retirement.

That means that even if you're not one of those lucky few who have $1 million or more socked away, you can still retire well, so long as you keep your monthly budget under $3,000 a month.

Retiring on a fixed income can seem daunting, but with some planning and commitment to a frugal lifestyle, it's possible to retire comfortably on $2,000 a month. This takes discipline but ultimately will allow you to have more freedom and happiness in your golden years without money worries.

The IRS allows penalty-free withdrawals from retirement accounts after age 59½ and requires withdrawals after age 72. (These are called required minimum distributions, or RMDs). There are some exceptions to these rules for 401(k) plans and other qualified plans.

The 4% rule limits annual withdrawals from your retirement accounts to 4% of the total balance in your first year of retirement. That means if you retire with $1 million saved, you'd take out $40,000. According to the rule, this amount is safe enough that you won't risk running out of money during a 30-year retirement.

What is a good monthly retirement income for a couple? ›

For retired couples who are both receiving benefits, the average monthly income from Social Security is now $2,753. Common advice for couples is to have about 7.5x their yearly income saved for retirement.

Specifically, those with over $1 million in retirement accounts are in the top 3% of retirees. The Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) estimates that 3.2% of retirees have over $1 million, and a mere 0.1% have $5 million or more, based on data from the Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances.

Retiring at 65 with $1 million is entirely possible. Suppose you need your retirement savings to last for 15 years. Using this figure, your $1 million would provide you with just over $66,000 annually. Should you need it to last a bit longer, say 25 years, you will have $40,000 a year to play with.

That's over $7,200 of annual income you would receive in Social Security benefits instead of taking it from your retirement account. SmartAsset: How long will $250,000 last in retirement? No one knows how long their retirement will last. But it's generally safe to assume you'll be retired for at least 20 years.

Adjustments And Alternatives To The 4% Rule

Alternatives include dynamic spending strategies and a reliance on a total return approach rather than a strict withdrawal percentage, adapting to market fluctuations and personal circ*mstances.

Today's proposed Retirement Security rule by the Biden Administration expands protections for retirement savers, ensures sounder financial advice, lowers investment junk fees, and gives every American saving for retirement greater peace of mind about their portfolios.

The 4% rule says people should withdraw 4% of their retirement funds in the first year after retiring and take that dollar amount, adjusted for inflation, every year after. The rule seeks to establish a steady and safe income stream that will meet a retiree's current and future financial needs.